2018–19 Australian region cyclone season (Olo72)
The 2018–19 Australian region cyclone season was an average tropical cyclone season, with 14 tropical cyclones occurring within the Australian region. It officially started on 1 November 2018, and ended on 30 April 2019. The regional tropical cyclone operational plan defines a "tropical cyclone year" separately from a "tropical cyclone season"; the "tropical cyclone year" began on 1 July 2018 and ended on 30 June 2019. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2018.The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons with ENSO neutral conditions occurring during the season.The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2018–19 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10. At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was likely to occur. In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2018, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year. Each forecast issued took into account the current neutral ENSO conditions that were forecast to continue during the season. For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 26% chance that the season would be near its average of around 10 tropical cyclones.For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to or slightly below the average of 7, with a 50% chance of an above average cyclone season.TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelihood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia. For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be very below normal with a 10% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 52% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia.The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E had a 10% chance of having an above average tropical cyclone season.The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation.They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific. As a result, they predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 48% chance of it being above average.The Western region was predicted to have 56% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 47% chance of being above average. During November 2018 the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), issued seasonal forecasts for the whole basin and one each for the regions to the east and west of 135°E. For the overall basin they predicted that tropical cyclone activity in the entire Australian region was likely to be near normal with 13 tropical cyclones predicted to occur. However, it was suggested that the season could be below average since the region had been in an inactive era since around 2000, and two of the indicators they had used to predict the season suggested below average activity.For the Western region it was predicted that activity would be near normal with 9 tropical cyclones occurring, while the Eastern region was predicted to have 5 tropical cyclones occurring. Timeline ImageSize = width:795 height:250 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/11/2013 till:01/05/2014 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/11/2013 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TL value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Low_=_<63_km/h_(<39_mph) id:C1 value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Category_1_=_63-87_km/h_(39-54_mph) id:C2 value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Category_2_=_88-142_km/h_(55-74_mph) id:C3 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_3_=_143-158-km/h_(75-98_mph) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_4_=_159-204_km/h_(99-127_mph) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥205_km/h_(≥128_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:02/11/2013 till:11/11/2013 color:TL text:"01U" from:06/11/2013 till:11/11/2013 color:C2 text:"Kenanga" from:19/11/2013 till:30/11/2013 color:C5 text:"Alu" from:08/12/2013 till:12/12/2013 color:TL text:"04U" from:17/12/2013 till:24/12/2013 color:C1 text:"Owen" from:02/01/2014 till:05/01/2014 color:C3 text:"Penny" from:07/01/2014 till:22/01/2014 color:C4 text:"Ryley" from:25/01/2014 till:30/01/2014 color:C4 text:"Savannah" barset:break from:29/01/2014 till:22/02/2014 color:C5 text:"Trevor" from:03/03/2014 till:07/03/2014 color:TL text:"10U" from:20/03/2014 till:23/03/2014 color:TL text:"11U" from:24/04/2014 till:28/04/2014 color:C4 text:"Veronica" bar:Month width:6 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/11/2013 till:01/12/2013 text:November from:01/12/2013 till:01/01/2014 text:December from:01/01/2014 till:01/02/2014 text:January from:01/02/2014 till:01/03/2014 text:February from:01/03/2014 till:01/04/2014 text:March from:01/04/2014 till:01/05/2014 text:April TextData = pos:(569,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(713,23) text:"scales)" Storms Tropical Low 01U At midnight on November 2 the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that a Tropical Low had developed well far of Northeastern coast of Australia.The system existed for some days,but it became less well organised and dissipated on November 11.. Tropical Cyclone Kenanga On 6 November, TCWC Perth and TCWC Jakarta started to monitor a weak tropical low that had developed about 500 km south of the city of Surabaya.By 06:00 UTC of 7 November, TCWC Jakarta began issuing advisories and was classified as a tropical depression.Several hours later, TCWC Jakarta upgraded the system to a tropical cyclone, giving the name Kenanga.Winds from the cyclone also blew ash from nearby Mount Agung on Bali westwards to its popular beaches and far eastern Java.On 10 November, Kenanfa weakened into a tropical low, while turning to the southwest. Dissipating later the next day Although Kenanfa made a semilandfall, the rainfall from the storm caused severe flooding and landslides across the southern half of Java and Bali, killing at least 18 people and destroying many homes and businesses. Tropical Cyclone Alu The Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Brisbane began issuing warnings on a developing tropical low which was located near the southern Papua New Guinea Tip on 19 November, designating the low as Tropical Cyclone 03P. TCWC Brisbane initiated tropical cyclone advisories on the tropical low early on 20 November. Shortly after, TCWC Brisbane upgraded the system to Tropical CycloneAlu, which was a name assigned by the TCWC in Port Moresby.Alu drifted erratically near Papua coast for the next two days, and intensified,reaching the category 5 in the Australian scale,the system, formed a well-defined eye. But Alu began weakening,avoiding the Australian mainland, then north-east while it continued to weaken. TCWC Brisbane downgraded Alu below tropical cyclone strength, and issued its last advisory early on 30 November. Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 243 deaths.In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of the flooding.Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as tides in the area reached two metres high.The provincial capital, Popondetta, had its water supply shut down, and Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, suspended flights to Popondetta's main airport. The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing the evacuation of about 100 people.The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province.Six days of torrential rain led to a damage total of (US$71 billion). Guba was the first tropical cyclone to be assigned a name from Port Moresby's name lists since Tropical Cyclone Guba in 2007. Tropical Low 04U On 6 December, the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Perth reported that a tropical low formed estimated to be 75 km (47 mi) west northwest of Kalumburu and 445 km (277 mi) northeast of Derby and moving slowly southwest parallel to the north Kimberly coast.In the early hours of 8 December the tropical low moved inland from King Sound. Heavy rainfall was reported on the Dampier Peninsula east and southeast of Port Hedland, including Telfer and parts of the De Grey catchment. Derby recorded 83 mm (3.3 in) of rain while Camballin received 142 mm (5.6 in) and the aboriginal community of Looma had 105 mm (4.1 in).The tropical low continued moving overland and the BOM issued their final advisory on December 12. Tropical Cyclone Owen During 16 December,the TCWC Brisbane started to monitor a tropical low that had developed within the monsoon trough, very close of York Peninsula. Over the next few hours the system moved eastwards and rapidly developed further in an area of low vertical wind shear, atmospheric convection started to wrapping around the system's centre, TCWC Brisbane reported that the system had intensified into a category 1 tropical cyclone and named it Owen.The system subsequently started to weaken as increased vertical wind shear associated with an upper level trough affected the system, before it weakened below tropical cyclone intensity over the next few days the remnant tropical low moved towards the southeast,. Severe Tropical Cyclone Penny On 2 January, TCWC Perth noted that Tropical Low 06U had formed overland, to the north of Broome in North-West Australia. JTWC had upgrade this system become a significant tropical cyclone. On 3 January, TCWC Perth issued a Tropical Cyclone Warning for coastal areas from Wickham to Exmouth. Later that day, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert as a tropical cyclone was likely to form within the following 12 hours.TCWC Perth begun issuing advisories for the developing tropical low and issued a tropical cyclone warning along the far western coastline of the Western Australia region.On late 3 January, the system became Tropical Cyclone Penny, rapidily it made landfall near Onslow.Early that day Pen y weakened to a tropical cyclone before weakening into a tropical low during the next day. JTWC issued its last advisory on this system on 5 January as it continued to weaken inland. In Onslow, the roof of the local library was blown off, resulting in flooding within the building. A nearby hospital also sustained flood damage.Several trees and power lines were downed by high winds and some roads were flooded. Following the storm, the shires of Ashburton, Carnarvon, Upper Gascoyne, Murchison, Yalgoo, Moora, Northam, York, Quairading and Beverley were eligible for disaster assistance from the Australian Government. Tropical Cyclone Ryley On January 7, the JTWC started tracking a tropical low approximately 426 km (265 mi) west south-west of the tip of Cape York Peninsula in the Gulf of Carpentaria. As the system began to move north-east, a subtropical ridge located to the south provided a good outflow channel, while vertical windshear continued to improve in the area. Rapidily,it crossed Cape York and moved into the northern Coral Sea, encountering an area of warmer sea surface temperatures and moderate.The TCWC Brisbane named the storm Tropical Cyclone Ryley, as it intensified into a Category 1 storm with 10 minute wind speeds of 65 km (40 mi).The cyclone began to move in an east south-easterly direction. Ryley rapidly intensified into a Category 2 storm on the Australian Scale, with maximum 10 minute wind gusts of 95 km (60 mi) and a barometric pressure of 975 hPa. Preparations for the storm were under way.Thousands of residents in the path of the storm were urged to evacuate. Ryley dropped a lot of rainfall in some east coast crossed the Queensland coast near Mission Beach shortly after midnight (local time) on January 17. At that time, the large destructive core around the eye extended between Innisfail and Cardwell, Queensland.Ryley caused at least 100 million (2019 USD) in damage.Three death were reported. Severe Tropical Cyclone Savannah Cyclone Savannah began as a tropical low on 25 January, it strengthened into a tropical storm. Aided by favourable environmental conditions, Savannah rapidly intensified to reach Category 4 status on the Australian cyclone scale, and with a peak intensity of 943 mbar it was among the strongest cyclones on record within the Australia region.It made landfall on western Australia coast. Due to the sparse population and preparations made, the cyclone was responsible for one death In all, damages from the storm amounted to ($1,000,000 USD). Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor [https://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Cyclone_Trevor Main article:Cyclone Trevor] The precursor to Trevor was a tropical low that formed well northeast of Vanuatu on January 29. At 12:00 UTC on January 30, the low developed into a tropical depression. Three days later, it strengthened into a tropical storm. but it became a remnant again, moving to the west, but on February 9, Trevor became a tropical storm some 2,000 kilometers west of the Gulf of Carpentaria, and on February 10 the storm became category 1 and in February 12, it became category 3 on the Fujita scale, touching land in less than six hours later in Heatlands regional park, a generally sparsely populated area, producing about 10 deaths and damages of nearly one billion dollars.When the storm crossed the Cape York and entered in the gulf of the same name as a category 1, Trevor underwent explosive intensification. In a 30-hour period, Trevor's barometric pressure dropped from 984 mbar (29.10 inHg) to 882 mbar (26.04 inHg), and its 10-minute sustained winds increased from 60 mph (95 km/h) to 165 mph (270 km/h). At its peak on the afternoon of February 15, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Trevor was an extremely powerful Category 5-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale with 1-minute sustained winds of around 190 mph (305 km/h). Due to land interaction and a moderate westerly wind shear, Trevor began to weaken near landfall. At 18:00 UTC on February 17, it made landfall near Mornington Island, Australia as a strong Category 5 cyclone on the Australian scale.On land Trevor continued to weaken. but an anormaly low rate due for the brown ocean effect over Nicholson area By early on January 18, Trevor had weakened to a Category 1 tropical cyclone,having this category over land for almost 18 hours and near two days as a tropical storm. At around 18:00 UTC on January 21, Trevor degenerated into a remnant low near Wagga Wagga city. Widespread flooding occurred as a result of a storm surge that reached 30 ft (8.2 m) in some places.In the umpopulated area in the Cape Carpentaria.In Mapoon district,almost the 90% of the buildings and 350 deaths most for the extreme floods.Trevor later caused bad sea conditions and strong rainbands in all Carpentaria Basin.Later in Wellesley and Mornington Islands were reported the worst damages,with the almost 10 per cent of land of these islands disappeared for the erosion and 90 deaths in these islands and surrounded zones.Days later, Trevor's remnants travelled for some unpopulated areas,as a low it produced heavy rainfall in the New South Gales,causing 13 deaths. Overall, as a result of Trevor, 453 people were killed and 25 people were reported missing; as well as this, Trevor caused US$2,31 billion in damage. Tropical Disturbance 10U In early March a tropical low formed near Darwin, which was slow moving to the Carpentaria Gulf .It soon started to weaken due to interaction with land and it weakened as it had become less organised.On 7 March the JTWC issued its final warning on 10U and then later that day TCWC Darwin followed suit and issued its final advisory. The strongest wind gust recorded was at Charles Point Lighthouse with 120 kilometres an hour recorded during the Tropical Cyclone with Darwin Airport recording 102 kilometres an hour around 2 am ACST making it the first time since April 1985 for Darwin to experience Category 1 or more since Cyclone Gretel passed Darwin on 12 April 1985.253435 Damages from the storm amounted to an estimated A$21.5 million (US$15 million).36 Tropical Low 11U On 23 March, a Tropical Depression in the east of Papua The system was nearly stationary,weakening in March 23 and dissipating later than day,without affect land. Tropical Cyclone Veronica On 24 April, TCWC Darwin and TCWC Jakarta reported that a weak tropical low had developed within the Arafura Sea near the Tanimbar Islands.Over the next week, the low remained weak as it moved towards the eastwards, before it turned towards the northwest during 25 April.Rapidily intensifing and being designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 14S later on 24 April. In the afternoon, TCWC Darwin upgraded it to a Category 1 tropical cyclone and designated it as Tropical Cyclone Veronica,it rapidily intensificated in a category 4 cyclone in the Australian scale,But hight wind shear weakened the storm into a low in less than 32 hours. the low weakened slightly and JTWC downgraded Veronica to tropical depression,and dissipating in April 28. Storm names Bureau of Meteorology Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones.However, the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. These monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed here below. TCWC Jakarta TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list. TCWC Port Moresby Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007. As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) ACE is the result of a storm's winds multiplied by how long it lasted for, so storms or subtropical storms (originally not included until 2012) that lasted a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have higher ACE totals. Tropical depressions are not included in the ACE totals. Season effects This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2018–19 Australian region cyclone season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names – damages, and death totals. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2019 AUD and USD. Category:Olo72 Category:Cyclones Category:Australian basin Category:Australian region cyclone seasons Category:Near-average seasons Category:Unusual seasons Category:Deadly seasons Category:Costly Seasons Category:2018